UCT Evidence from the Field

ℹ️ Transparency note: OotuFund has not yet launched a pilot programme and has no outcome data of its own. Every case study and finding on this page comes from independent evaluations of other organisations' or governments' programmes, cited with full sources. This is the evidence base our model is designed around.

Landmark RCT

"Recipients invested in assets, reduced hunger, and improved wellbeing — without conditions."

The most-cited randomised controlled trial of unconditional cash transfers followed 1,500 households in Siaya County, Kenya. GiveDirectly transferred approximately $1,000 per household over time — delivered directly via mobile money, no strings attached.

The peer-reviewed evaluation by Haushofer & Shapiro, published in the American Economic Review in 2016, found significant and sustained improvements across multiple wellbeing dimensions. Critically, it found no evidence of increased spending on alcohol or tobacco — the most common objection to unconditional approaches.

+38% food security +31% asset values +58% psychological wellbeing No increase in alcohol/tobacco

GiveDirectly Kenya

Siaya County, Kenya · 2011–2016

Source: Haushofer & Shapiro, American Economic Review, 2016

Community members gather at a GiveDirectly cash transfer programme in Kilifi County, Kenya

GiveDirectly Kenya Programme

Siaya County · RCT documented 2016

Photo: GiveDirectly / Kilifi County Kenya

Global Programme Evidence

Six Programmes. Six Countries. One Consistent Finding.

Across geography, scale, and delivery mechanism — when communities receive unconditional cash, they invest it wisely.

Community members in Kenya participating in a GiveDirectly cash transfer programme. Photo: GiveDirectly.

Child Welfare

Kenya CT-OVC Programme

The Government of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children delivers regular transfers to households caring for orphans. An independent evaluation found dramatic improvements in child outcomes across 350,000+ recipient households.

−42% child labour +51% school attendance Savings doubled

Source: Oxford Policy Management / UNICEF Evaluation, 2012. Government of Kenya programme, ongoing.

Woman in a GiveDirectly cash transfer programme community in Malawi. Photo: GiveDirectly.

National Scale

Bolsa Família — Brazil

Brazil's flagship conditional cash transfer programme reached 14 million+ families at its peak, providing ~R$600/month per household. Independent research attributed 21 percentage points of poverty reduction to the programme. Contrary to common assumptions, no reduction in adult labour supply was found.

14M+ families −21pp extreme poverty No labour disincentive

Source: Soares et al., International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, 2010. Federal Government of Brazil, 2003–ongoing.

GiveDirectly Kenya programme recipient with mobile phone. Photo: GiveDirectly.

Tech-Enabled

Novissi — Togo

In response to COVID-19, Togo's government launched Novissi, an AI-targeted mobile money transfer programme reaching 500,000+ people. Evaluators found AI-based poverty identification was 4–11× more accurate than traditional community-based targeting, setting a new benchmark for technology-enabled UCT delivery in Africa.

500,000+ reached 4–11× targeting accuracy Mobile money

Source: Aiken et al., Science, 2022. Government of Togo, 2020.

GiveDirectly programme recipient Emmanuel in Rwanda. Photo: GiveDirectly.

Basic Income

Basic Income Grant Pilot — Namibia

In Otjivero-Omitara, 930 community members received N$100/month (~$12) for 13 months. The results were striking: child malnutrition fell from 42% to 10%, school enrollment rose from 64% to 90%, and reported crime fell by 42%. Local economic activity grew as cash circulated within the community.

Malnutrition: 42%→10% School enrollment: 64%→90% −42% crime

Source: Namibia BIG Coalition Evaluation Report, 2009. Pilot funded by Lutheran churches and civil society.

Guaranteed Income

Stockton SEED — USA

125 Stockton, California residents received $500/month for 24 months. A rigorous evaluation found full-time employment among recipients rose from 28% to 40% — higher than the control group — refuting the "dependency" narrative. Mental health, food security, and family stability all improved significantly.

Employment: 28%→40% Mental health improved No work disincentive

Source: Murphy et al., University of Tennessee, 2022. Funded by private philanthropy, 2019–2021.

Jackline, a GiveDirectly Kenya programme participant. Photo: GiveDirectly.

Climate Resilience

Hunger Safety Net Programme — Kenya

The HSNP delivers ~$26/month to chronically food-insecure households in four arid counties of northern Kenya (Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir). An Oxford Policy Management evaluation found a 29% reduction in hunger and significant reductions in negative coping strategies such as asset sales and child labour during drought periods.

−29% hunger Drought resilience Reduced asset depletion

Source: Oxford Policy Management HSNP Evaluation, 2016. Government of Kenya / DFID programme, ongoing.

Insights & Thinking

Perspectives on Cash, Community & Change

Research Insight

Why Unconditional Beats Conditional Cash Every Time

Meta-analyses from 200+ studies show unconditional transfers consistently outperform conditional programmes on nearly every outcome metric — from food security to school attendance. The evidence on removing conditions is now overwhelming.

Field Note

Mobile Money as Infrastructure: The African Advantage

With mobile money penetration exceeding 70% in East Africa, the delivery infrastructure for UCT programmes already exists at scale. Kenya's M-Pesa ecosystem makes near-instant, low-cost, auditable cash delivery possible without a bank account.

Climate

Climate Finance Must Reach Communities, Not Just Governments

The communities most affected by climate change receive the least climate finance. UCT programmes in arid regions have demonstrated measurable resilience benefits — yet climate funds rarely flow directly to households. That must change.

What UCT Programmes Achieve

"Recipients invested in assets, reduced hunger, and improved wellbeing — without conditions."

Six Programmes. Six Countries. One Consistent Finding.

Kenya CT-OVC Programme

Bolsa Família — Brazil

Novissi — Togo

Basic Income Grant Pilot — Namibia

Stockton SEED — USA

Hunger Safety Net Programme — Kenya

Perspectives on Cash, Community & Change

Why Unconditional Beats Conditional Cash Every Time

Mobile Money as Infrastructure: The African Advantage

Climate Finance Must Reach Communities, Not Just Governments

OotuFund Is Built on This Evidence